With two days to go, is the Issue 1 race a dead heat?

Posted on Aug 6, 2023

In two days, Ohio voters will go to the polls to decide on Issue 1– whether to raise the threshold needed to amend the state constitution via ballot initiative.

Opponents of raising the threshold have outraged supporters by a two-to-one margin.

However, a new poll by Ohio Northern University suggests the race could be a dead heat. Per that poll, “Among the 675 polled registered voters, 42.4% approve of Issue 1, while 41% disapprove.”

The poll also shows that “[a] large majority of Ohio likely voters do think abortion should be legal (60%) and 54% say they would support a constitutional amendment to protect reproductive autonomy.” There is no gender difference on the issue.

This all suggests that if Issue 1 passes, it will be much more tenable to ban abortion in Ohio. If it does not, it would be tough– if the poll is right, that is.

The survey’s margin of error was 3.7 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The polls was also conducted among registered voters, as opposed to likely voters. Given how supercharged the “no” campaign is and the financial differential, this could mean when results come in on Tuesday night, Ohio Northern’s results don’t quite look predictive.