Vance to take over Iran negotiations?

Two weeks ago, we pointed out that Trump was mulling putting softer-on-Iran JD Vance in charge of Iran peace negotiations.

Today, that seems much more likely than ever, with Trump hinting at it again. Per Politico Playbook:

Vice President JD VANCE is on standby, prepared to jump into sensitive negotiations with Iran if backchannel talks advance to the point of a direct meeting with Iranian officials.

The talks, currently, are led by STEVE WITKOFF, the president’s special envoy, and JARED KUSHNER, the president’s son-in-law, but Vance could be tagged in if the pair make sufficient progress, according to a person familiar with the talks granted anonymity to discuss them. It is not clear what Iran might need to offer.

The role, which was hinted at by President DONALD TRUMP today, reflects how Vance has found a lane in the conflict, emerging as an important player as the White House searches for a way to end the war.

“President Trump has an extraordinary national security team, including Vice President Vance, Secretary [of State MARCO] RUBIO, Special Envoy Witkoff, and Mr. Kushner, who are working together to see if a peace deal is possible,” White House spokesperson ANNA KELLY said. “The Vice President has always been a trusted voice on all foreign policy topics, and the President appreciates his work to see whether the Iranians can meet the reality of this current moment. In the meantime, the United States Military will continue to annihilate all of its military targets, and Iran will be sent back to the stone ages tomorrow night if they fail to engage in a serious way.”

Vance’s possible role comes at a delicate moment in negotiations between the two countries. Trump is threatening to bomb Iran back to the “stone ages” if its leaders don’t acquiesce to his demands by Tuesday night. And while the prospect of Vance’s involvement demonstrates that the White House is serious about finding an off ramp, it comes as Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH promises unprecedented strikes on the country in the coming days.

Even Trump said he couldn’t know if the war with Iran was ending or escalating.

Vance has, for the most part, stayed behind the scenes. While officials like Hegseth have regularly briefed the media on the military campaign, Vance has, at times, been in contact with intermediaries. On Sunday night, he was in touch with Pakistan’s Gen. ASIM MUNIR, as Islamabad prepared to circulate a potential 45-day ceasefire proposal, according to a second person familiar with the communications who was granted anonymity to discuss private talks. The communication was first reported by Reuters.

Pakistan has positioned itself as an intermediary, joining a widening group of countries involved in trying to broker a ceasefire.

Trump acknowledged Vance’s involvement in the negotiations, reiterating to reporters today the deadline that he has given Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“We are dealing with them. Essentially they have until 8 o’clock tomorrow night eastern time. But we are dealing with them. I think it’s going well. Mr Witkoff’s here. JD is involved in the dealing.”

The president has also publicly leaned on Vance — even if jokingly — to help broker a peace. During an Easter lunch event last week, Trump asked his vice president in the audience: “He’s working on a deal, right? How is that moving? Is that it? OK, the big deal — so if it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming JD Vance.”Vance’s potential role in securing a deal to end hostilities is in keeping with his longstanding opposition to so-called forever wars. Trump, notably, singled him out during the war’s first days, saying the vice president was “philosophically a little different from me.”

“I think he was maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was still quite enthusiastic,” Trump said.

Vance was one of the last administration officials to post support for the strikes on social media and, like other administration officials, avoided TV appearances during the first weekend of the war.

The White House has pushed back on any suggestion that Vance was disengaged in the early days of the conflict.

We still think this could be make-or-break territory for Vance, and the odds seems more inclined towards “break.” There wouldn’t be a need to switch up who’s doing the peace negotiations if they were going swimmingly. And the reason they’re probably not going swimmingly isn’t the identity of the negotiators, it’s more likely because Iran is still being run by hardliners who really don’t care if the whole country gets bombed back to the Stone Age and every Iranian dies, because they think they’re the mahdi or some other Islamaicist nonsense, and that’s that.

But good luck to Vance. If he pulls it off, he will impress a lot of people who have found him a bit lackluster of late.