It’s Vance versus the neocons on Iran… who will prevail?

Axios this morning reported that a major split is developing within the Trump administration.

The dispute concerns Iran. And it pits Vance against the neocons in the administration– Marco Rubio and Signal-happy Mike Waltz.

President Trump has vowed to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon — but inside his national security team there’s a divide over the best way to do it.

[…]

One camp, unofficially led by Vice President Vance, believes a diplomatic solution is both preferable and possible and that the U.S. should be ready to make compromises in order to make it happen. Vance is highly involved in the Iran policy discussions, another U.S. official said.

[…]

The other camp, which includes national security adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is highly suspicious of Iran and extremely skeptical of the chances of a deal that significantly rolls back Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. officials say.

We have mixed views here.

There’s plenty we’ve historically liked about Rubio (Waltz, less so).

However, Rubio’s plan seems a lot more likely to wind up involving US forces in some kind of military action against the Islamic Republic.

Vance seems to have correctly read the situation and recognized a few core facts:

1. Iran is the descendant of an extremely powerful Empire that has more or less always been a major global player.
2. Iran occupies a position in the world, purely because of geography, where it will likely always be powerful (read the book “Silk Roads” if you’re not buying this).
3. This is all the more true because of, well, oil.
4. The reality is that Iran is probably going to get the bomb at some point, sooner or later.
5. The key is, would a change in US policy forestall that eventuality and create a situation in which Iran develops more of a middle class that will, sooner or later, stand in opposition to the mullahs.
6. Rubio may want to treat Iran like Cuba. But it’s not Cuba. And even if it were, it’s far from clear that Rubio’s preferred Cuba policy ever yielded any dividends.
7. Neocons keep thinking Trump is aligned with them (see: Bolton, John). He’s not. He’s a realist-isolationist.

So, setting aside our predisposition to back the home team, we think Vance has the philosophical and factual edge here. That’s especially true given that the boss is very much not George W. Bush (for better and for worse).