Kristi Noem overhang: Are ICE problems still hurting Republicans?

It’s been months and months since the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in confrontations between ICE and anti-ICE protesters/agitators in Minnesota. The visuals of the Pretti incident in particular sparked concern even on the right that under the leadership of former Secretary Kristi Noem, the agency had drifted out of control.

Now, there’s some evidence out of last night’s primary results that the ongoing reputational problems ICE sustained under Noem continue, even outside blue districts and states.

Ohio’s Ninth District is a top target for the NRCC (it’s the only Ohio district Republicans aim to flip, actually). And last night, Madison Sheahan, who had resigned from ICE to run for the seat lost out to not just one, but two other Republicans: Derek Merrin, a former state legislator, and anti-drag queen/anti-porn state Rep. Josh Williams. Sheahan managed only about 20 percent– a pretty poor showing that is already grabbing national headlines.

The result follows reporting earlier in the week from the Washington Examiner that a general sense of “malaise” about ICE continues to permeate Ohio politics– even though the state went to President Trump by 8 points in 2016 and 2020, and 11 points in 2024. The result is suggestive, though not definitive; it bears noting that Sheahan ran as a self-described “Trump conservative,” whereas Merrin branded himself as “MAGA” (Williams is perhaps best-described as the Rick Santorum/Mike Huckabee candidate in the race). Could this be as much about the shine coming off the Trump name in Ohio as it is about ICE being an unhelpful line on a candidate’s bio?

A spate of recent polling has shown Trump’s approval numbers among Republicans slipping. A May 1 Pew poll showed it among Republicans and leaners at 68 percent. AP/NORC from a few days before that echoed that 68 percent. A CNN poll from late March/early April showed it at 80 percent among Republicans, not Republicans plus leaners.

In Ohio-specific polling, 85 percent of Republicans plus leaners approve of Trump. So yeah, this sure looks like to the extent this is about anyone’s reputational problems, it’s more about ICE’s bad numbers than Trump’s. Sorry, Never Trumpers.

Is this a result that should have Sen. Husted desperately hoping that some combination of House moderates and libertarians kill the reconciliation bill that would throw more money at ICE and which a lot of these members seem to be regarding as an anchor headed into November? Probably.

It still strikes us as unlikely that Husted would actually vote against the bill, if it came up in the Senate. But it’s easy to see how he could be hoping Thomas Massie and Rand Paul, plus moderates from tough locales like California, Virginia and, uh, Maine, do him a solid and just keep the bill from getting anywhere close to the Senate floor. That’s also a trend that people like John Thune might want to pay attention to. And, well, Lindsey Graham, since he’s the one writing the thing (not that math, either in the vote-counting or the budgetary sense is really Lindsey’s strong point).