A new poll by Vivek Ramaswamy pollster Tony Fabrizio shows the immigration restrictionist-irritant in chief sitting with more than 50 percent of Republican primary voters, and ahead of his nearest rival by more than thirty points.
Vivek Ramaswamy, who is expected to announce for Ohio governor in mid-February, is over 50% among Republican primary voters and leads his nearest competitor by 34 points, according to a poll by a pro-Ramaswamy outside group.
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Ramaswamy, 39, has brought on key members of the political operation of Vice President JD Vance, formerly a U.S. senator from Ohio, to run his campaign and super PAC — Tony Fabrizio (Trump’s pollster), Andy Surabian and Jai Chabria.
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The poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates “makes it clear that Vivek is the unquestioned favorite to not only win this primary, but to dominate it,” the source added.
Undoubtedly, Ramaswamy is ahead of everyone else in the OH-Gov race. He’s had more recent media exposure than his nearest competitor– Dave Yost, who is sitting with 18 percent to Ramaswamy’s 52 percent.
But something about this poll doesn’t sit right with me. It also claims that 15 percent of voters surveyed have never heard of Ramaswamy, but that a piddly one-point-higher 16 percent haven’t heard of Yost. Does that strike anyone as likely?
Sure, Yost is the sitting AG. But do most people– even sure-to-cast-a-ballot Republican primary voters really, really know who their current AG is? I’m guessing the true number of people unfamiliar with Yost is quite a bit higher than 16 percent– maybe it’s more like 25 percent– but that the Ramaswamy number is about right.
This looks a little like a poll designed to set the tone for a contest– or even keep a potential opponent from stepping into the ring– as opposed to an accurate survey of where voters actually are.
All this said, Fabrizio is a good pollster. His numbers showing Trump ahead of Harris were directionally right, even if the specifics might have been less perfect.
The probability is that Ramaswamy is ahead. Polls this early usually are a test of name ID, and he has it.
But I’m not convinced this the poll is right with regard to voter familiarity with Yost.
If he doesn’t end up running, we’ll never know what was truly what, but my sneaking suspicion is that if he stepped into the ring, he’d get more than 18 percent support– though whether or not he’d be capable of beating Ramaswamy is less clear.
Very possibly, Ramaswamy’s people worry Yost might be, though, which would of course be another reason to commission the poll in the first place.